 Minnesota Timberwolves 2009/2010 |
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After a tumultuous offseason, the Kahn, Rambis era officially begins in Minnesota.
Offseason Moves
Minnesota made an unusual choice for McHale's replacement, opting for former Pacers exec David Kahn. He had been out of the league for several years but reportedly came highly recommended from commissioner David Stern. At any rate, if Kahn has even a rudimentary understanding of how the salary cap works, he'll be an upgrade on his predecessor. Besides, the T-Wolves weren't in a position to nab any big fish with this hire.
Not surprisingly, Kahn opted not to keep McHale around as head coach and instead selected former Lakers assistant Kurt Rambis. Rambis struggled in his first coaching gig with the Lakers in the 1998-99 lockout year, because he had to deal with a couple of very strong personalities (Kobe and Shaq) while cutting his coaching teeth. As a former big man and the Lakers' top defensive assistant, the hope is that he can get Love and Jefferson to defend the paint more effectively.
Otherwise, the T-Wolves largely shuffled money around in an effort to cut costs for the coming season and accumulate cap space -- they could have as much as $20 million next summer for Kahn to accelerate the rebuilding:
Traded Mike Miller and Randy Foye for Etan Thomas, Oleksiy Pecherov, Darius Songaila and the fifth overall pick.
Minnesota dropped Miller and Foye to secure the fifth overall pick, walking away without a single rotation player after follow-up moves to jettison Thomas and Songaila. Pecherov has struggled in his two pro seasons and is even worse defensively than Love and Jefferson, but he may have to play regularly given the lack of viable frontcourt options.
Drafted Ricky Rubio.
We won't know the return on this pick for several years, as Rubio opted to stay in Spain rather than lose money on an expensive buyout in his contract with his Spanish team. It could be three years before he appears in a T-Wolves uniform, but Minnesota doesn't seem flustered by the potential wait. Rubio is only 19 and certainly ranks among the most dynamic young guards in the game, but it remains to be seen if he'll ever be able to shoot and score at the pro level. With the other point guards on the roster, the prospect remains that Minnesota may trade Rubio before he ever plays a game in the Twin Cities.
Drafted Jonny Flynn, Wayne Ellington and Henk Norel; traded 18th pick to Denver for a future first-rounder.
Minnesota tried to offset the losses of Miller and Foye with two more draft picks in the backcourt. Flynn will be a major linchpin in the backcourt with or without Rubio. He also provides an immediate upgrade on what Telfair gave them a year go, while Ellington's deep shooting ability fills a glaring roster need. Norel is a 6-foot-11 Dutch project who will stay overseas for the foreseeable future.
The swap of the 18th pick could prove important in future years, though it's definitely a long-term play. Denver sent Minnesota a protected pick from Charlotte that could end up being a high lottery selection. It's top-12 protected in 2010, top-10 protected in 2011, top-8 protected in 2012, top-3 protected in 2013 and totally unprotected in 2014.
Traded Smith and Telfair to the Clippers for Quentin Richardson.
Although this deal added to the Wolves' cap hoard next summer, I didn't think it was a worthwhile sacrifice. Smith was one of their most effective players last season, but Minnesota dealt him to the Clippers just to eliminate Telfair's $2.7 million obligation in 2010-11. While this gives Minnesota some more wiggle room under next summer's cap, Smith could have alleviated the glaring lack of frontcourt depth that now seems poised to keep the Wolves from serious playoff contention.
Traded Richardson to Miami for Mark Blount.
This was a straight salary dump that saved them over $1 million because of the difference in the two contracts. Blount has no remaining value and may not a play a game for Minnesota.
Traded Etan Thomas to Oklahoma City for Damien Wilkins and Chucky Atkins.
Minnesota dumped some salary with this deal too, as they waived Atkins and saved the non-guaranteed portion of his contract. Acquiring Wilkins also made Minnesota's lack of quality wing players slightly less glaring. I repeat, slightly. He declined sharply a year ago and may not have much left in the tank.
Signed Ryan Hollins to a three-year, $7 million offer sheet.
This was Kahn's second-best move of the summer, as Dallas didn't match the offer and the T-Wolves snagged an athletic, mobile center to offset the weaknesses of Love and Jefferson. Hollins hasn't played much in Dallas and Charlotte, but he has come along far enough that he makes a decent backup center, especially since he can do things (trap, press, run) that the other bigs on this team can't.
Traded Songaila and Bobby Brown to New Orleans for Antonio Daniels.
Although the T-Wolves shed $4.8 million in salary for next season, this came at a grave cost to their frontcourt depth. Minnesota dumped Smith, Songaila and Thomas in a matter of weeks over the summer, potentially turning one of the league's deepest frontcourts into a major question mark.
However, the deal is a strong long-term play for Minnesota. The T-Wolves are poised to have nearly $20 million in cap room next summer and may be able to sign two second-tier free agents to expand their talent base.
Signed Ramon Sessions to a four-year, $16 million deal.
This was Kahn's best move, hands down -- the free-agent steal of the summer. Sessions is the most underrated player in the league, a smooth point guard who plays solid defense and can function as a 2 in small backcourts, and Minnesota was able to poach him from Milwaukee for a bargain price when the Bucks opted not to match. It's going to create a bit of a logjam in the backcourt if and when Rubio decides to come over from Spain, but at that point the T-Wolves could make a trade of one of their three point guards to fill other weaknesses.
Signed Sasha Pavlovic to a one-year, $1.5 million deal.
This was a solid move to fill out a weak wing rotation. While Pavlovic is a very poor offensive player, he's a solid defender. Plus, his lone offensive skill -- an ability to hit 3s -- should come in handy since Jefferson is likely to face frequent double-teams.
Biggest Strength: Rebounding
The one thing the T-Wolves have going for them is that they'll be able to play volleyball on the boards against smaller opponents. Jefferson and Love are space-eating big men who excel at the fundamentals of walling off their man and winning scrums for free balls, and it's difficult to match up against both of them at the same time. The T-Wolves were already a strong rebounding team a year ago, and if Jefferson and Love start for a full season, they look to get much better.
Additionally, they have some help. Both Ryan Gomes and Brewer rebound very well for wings, adding to Minnesota's glass strength, as does Sessions at the point. Meanwhile, the departure of Telfair and presumable demotion of Cardinal eliminates two of the league's least-effective rebounders from the rotation.
Biggest Weakness: Wings
The T-Wolves could be scary bad on the perimeter this season. Brewer has proved to be a horrific offensive player in his two pro seasons, and while he's developing his chops as a defensive stopper, he's also coming off a major knee injury that could compromise his quickness. Additionally, he'll likely have to play the 2 instead of his preferred 3 spot, because Gomes is way too slow to stick with most 2s … or most 3s, for that matter. Gomes has consistently performed better as a smallball 4, but that option seems mostly off the table with this year's roster.
Behind Brewer and Gomes is mostly air. Wilkins finished an awful season in Oklahoma City a year ago, and the T-Wolves will have to hope he can bounce back from it this year. Pavlovic wasn't much better, though at least he's a competent defender. Ellington is a good deep shooter -- pretty much the only one left on the roster, actually -- but his limitations in other areas are severe enough that he may have trouble gaining traction. Newcomer Daniels could also figure into the wing rotation, as Sessions and Flynn would seem to have the point under control, but Daniels has slipped noticeably the past two seasons and isn't suitable for more than spot duty.
Outlook
Quietly, Kahn has given the T-Wolves a lot of optimism for the future -- something that was in scarce supply as long as McHale stayed in charge. Minnesota owns the rights to a trio of exciting young point guards, and the Jefferson-Love combo up front looks like it could be a productive one of the next decade. Additionally, the upcoming cap room gives Minnesota its first opportunity in a decade to make a big free-agent push.
As for this year? Nobody is counting on them to do much. Two starters are returning from serious knee injuries, they have a glaring lack of quality wings, and the shortage of quickness and defensive ability in the frontcourt looms as a major impediment.
But if the core trio of Sessions, Jefferson and Love stay healthy, they're going to be a lot better than people realize. In particular, I don't think people fully understand how important the upgrade from Telfair to Sessions is -- based on my model, that exchange alone will be worth nine wins for the T-Wolves.
If Jefferson makes a strong recovery from the knee injury, Flynn provides an immediate sensation. More importantly, if everybody stays healthy, it's possible for the T-Wolves to sneak into the postseason. Possible, but not likely. The more probable scenario is that inexperience, poor wing play and a glaring lack of frontcourt depth trip them up as the season wears on, but thanks to the changes of the past 12 months, their time as a doormat appears to be drawing to a close.
Prediction: 33-49, 5th in Northwest Division, 13th in Western Conference.
Mark Blount
22 Corey Brewer
14 Brian Cardinal
Antonio Daniels
19 Wayne Ellington
10 Jonny Flynn
8 Ryan Gomes
17 Devin Green
6 Jason Hart
1 Ryan Hollins
25 Al Jefferson
42 Kevin Love
Henk Norel **
3 Aleksandar Pavlovic
4 Oleksiy Pecherov
55 Jared Reiner
Ricky Rubio ** (resté en Espagne)
7 Ramon Sessions
5 Mustafa Shakur
3 Damien Wilkins
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