 Chicago Bulls 2009/2010 |
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Even with a rising star in D-Rose, '09-10 might look a lot like last season for Chi-Town
Offseason Moves
Chicago opted to lay low this offseason, and with good reason. The Bulls are in position to drop well under the salary cap next summer, potentially enabling them to make a run at Chicago native Dwyane Wade or Toronto forward Chris Bosh. The Bulls also have enough expiring contracts to make a move sooner if they see a good one, with Brad Miller's $12 million expiring contract being the main trade chip.
Of course, the Bulls have been in this position before and squandered the opportunity, most notably when they whiffed on getting Kevin Garnett two years ago. While it remains to be seen if Paxson and company have the gumption to pull off a major deal when the occasion presents itself, the Bulls have at least put themselves in position to do so, and that's half the battle.
Let Ben Gordon leave, signed Jannero Pargo.
This was the biggest decision by the Bulls, opting to let Gordon go after he had refused a $50-million offer the previous offseason. That was good strategy by the Bulls, as they landed Salmons in the interim -- a player who offers similar productivity for nearly half the price. Plus, they still have Hinrich around to back up, and the Bulls are up to their eyeballs in overpaid wings with Hinrich making $9 million a year and Deng nearly $12 million.
Instead they signed Pargo as a fourth guard, a role in which he thrived in his previous stop in Chicago. He's a shooting guard in a point guard's body but fits well with this roster because Hinrich's presence allows Pargo to switch matchups on defense. Pargo's deep shooting will help, too, as the team is rather short in that category minus Gordon.
Drafted James Johnson and Taj Gibson.
I wasn't wild about either of these two players. But Chicago picked 16th and 26th and had little need for point guard talent, the main asset available in this draft, so they took what was available. I would have preferred Omri Casspi to Johnson and DeJuan Blair to Gibson, but that's quibbling -- Johnson and Gibson certainly ranked among the best forwards on the board when Chicago picked, so they opted to fill the need.
Re-signed Lindsey Hunter to a one-year deal for the minimum.
A low-cost fifth guard who defends, Hunter is a dreadful offensive player but useful in end-of-quarter situations.
Cut Tim Thomas and Anthony Roberson.
Thomas saw the handwriting on the wall when Chicago drafted two players at his position so he accepted a buyout, one that reduced the Bulls' cap number and helps them skirt the luxury tax this season. Roberson was a simpler proposition -- a poor man's Pargo who became expendable when the Bulls signed the real one.
Re-signed Aaron Gray to a one-year deal for $1 million.
Gray accepted the Bulls' qualifying offer when he couldn't find a better deal in free agency. He's a good value for a fifth big man and provides Chicago it's lone low-post scoring threat, although in this case our definition of "threat" is more liberal than a Haight-Ashbury peace march.
Biggest Strength: Perimeter Scoring
The Bulls will test the perimeter trios of even the strongest defensive teams this year, as few threesomes are more capable than Rose, Salmons and Deng. Rose is a rising star who's saddled with his share of weaknesses -- court vision, for one, and long-distance shooting, for another. But he seemed to gain comfort as a scorer in the playoff series against Boston, and few guards are better at finishing at the basket. In his second season, he's likely to take a major step forward offensively.
Salmons is due for a decline after a career year last season, but he's another deft one-on-one scorer who can either spot up from outside or create shots off the bounce. Deng, meanwhile, should offset any decline from Salmons -- he's due for a rebound after an injury-plagued 2008-09 campaign where he at times became an afterthought in the offense. Chicago should look to involve him more heavily as the second option now that Gordon is gone.
Behind those three, there's more scoring waiting in reserve. Pargo is one of the game's most indiscriminate gunners, but he can get crazy hot against teams that don't defend the pick-and-roll well. Hinrich is a more complementary player, but one shouldn't underestimate his ability to initiate offense off the dribble, either.
As a result, the Bulls have five perimeter players who can reliably create their own shots, something that should give them plenty of offensive options to exploit mismatches in the backcourt.
Biggest Weakness: Post Offense
Chicago's problem offensively is that everything is entirely perimeter-based, and much of it is one-on-one. There isn't a single Bull on the roster who scores effectively with his back to the basket, limiting Chicago's options in the half court and making them even more dependent on the one-on-one freelancing game.
With the exception of Miller, Chicago's big men aren't good shooters, either, so it's difficult for them to spot up on the perimeter and provide open driving lanes for the guards. In fact, their frontcourt's strengths -- running the floor, cutting and finishing -- don't jibe very well with the backcourt's main weakness: They're all poor passers.
The Bulls will have their way some nights with opponents who lack quick backcourts, but the lack of players who can create double-teams will take its toll over the course of the season. They can look very stagnant when the jumpers aren't falling, and without Gordon that's likely to happen a lot more often.
Outlook
There are a lot of moving parts on this team, so the Bulls are a bit of a wild card entering the season. The extent of Rose's improvement, the impact of the two rookie forwards and the ability of Deng to bounce back all will significantly influence the Bulls' record, and nobody can forecast the outcome with much certainty.
Let's try anyway. We should see a healthy improvement from Rose to borderline All-Star caliber performance and an uptick in his defense, too (which, amid all the Rookie of the Year hype, was absolutely shambolic last season); a comeback from Deng to near his peak numbers; and a fairly strong dip in Salmons' output from last year's career highs.
Overall, those two pluses and one minus nearly offset the loss of Gordon. Additionally, the trades at the end of last year left the Bulls fairly understaffed in the frontcourt, and they'll probably get shoved around under the glass once again. Finally, Chicago isn't in a position to remedy many problems via trades, as they're saving up for a big splash in the 2010 free-agent market.
As a result, even though this team's future -- between Rose and the cap space -- is as bright as anyone's, their 2009-10 season isn't likely to produce any more glory than the one before it.
Prediction: 38-44, 3rd in Central Division, 9th in Eastern Conference.
7 Derrick Byars
9 Luol Deng
22 Taj Gibson
34 Aaron Gray
12 Kirk Hinrich
11 Lindsey Hunter
31 Jerome James
16 James Johnson
52 Brad Miller
13 Joakim Noah
2 Jannero Pargo
32 Chris Richard
1 Derrick Rose
15 John Salmons
24 Tyrus Thomas
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