 Miami Heat 2009/2010 |
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posté par Anonyme : | WADE DECLINING?
MIAMI -- Welcome to the fork in the road. We have two potential paths for the rest of Miami's season, and it's still an open question which direction it goes.
The first possibility is that the Heat's improved supporting cast, paired with the usual dose of awesomeness from Dwyane Wade, propels Miami to a top-five seed in the East and, perhaps, a run into the second round of the playoffs.
The alternate one, however, is that the Heat's other upgrades are made irrelevant by a decline in Wade's numbers, leaving Miami right back where they were a year ago as mediocre, first-round roadkill.
The one certainty in that picture is that Wade has more help than he did a year ago, something the other 11 Heat players proved again Thursday. While superstars Wade and Dwight Howard played to a draw, Miami's supporting cast beat the tar out of the more highly touted Magic ensemble, leading by 29 points after three quarters en route to a 104-86 win.
Consider the evidence up and down the Miami roster:
• Center Jermaine O'Neal looks as healthy and active as he has in years. He's providing his usual toughness at the defensive end while shooting 56.2 percent from the floor and upping his rebound rate.
• Quentin Richardson has stabilized an open sore at small forward after losing about 10 pounds for every time he was traded this summer, as well as providing a floor spacer with his 3-point shooting.
• After a half decade of idle threats, Miami has finally put Dorell Wright into the rotation and is getting results. He's providing a quality mid-range shooter and energy player off the bench, including Thursday's 11 points and eight boards in 26 minutes.
• Udonis Haslem may not score enough to be an ideal starter, but now that he's the first big man off the bench his defense, toughness and ability to make open shots make him a strong weapon.
• Haslem can come off the pine because of Michael Beasley. While he's had has his ups and downs, especially when he has to play on the wing, he's providing nearly a point every two minutes at the ripe old age of 20 and his defense has improved considerably from a year ago. "You can't just pick on him anymore," said Magic coach Stan Van Gundy before the game.
• Finally, the switch of Carlos Arroyo to the starting unit, intended mainly as a punishment for the frequent tardiness of Mario Chalmers, may have the unintended effect of getting better shots for O'Neal and Beasley with the first group. Arroyo had seven assists and no turnovers in 26 minutes, while Chalmers' scoring instincts seem better paired with the offense-starved second unit.
Don't look now, but the support crew has the Heat at 13-11, with a winning road record, even though Wade's numbers are way down from a year ago.
And that's where we get to the other part of the story. Wade was MVP-caliber a year ago, but has been considerably short of that standard this season. He entered Thursday shooting only 42.7 percent from the floor, down from last year's 49.1 percent, with a resultant decline of 3.5 points per game off his league-leading average.
Just this week, Heat team president Pat Riley mentioned that he didn't think Wade's conditioning was at the level of a year ago, and that wasn't news to observers in South Florida. While Wade has still been brilliant by the standards of mere mortals, he hasn't seemed to have the same lift or energy as a year ago. Locals openly wonder if he's coasting through this season while he waits for the Heat to bring in some help in free agency.
At first glance, it's hard to find any dip in athleticism or energy from Wade's numbers. Wade is shooting the exact same proportion of shots as he did a year ago, according to 82games.com: 66 percent jumpers, 25 percent close-range, 8 percent dunks and 1 percent tip-ins. He's averaging more free throws per shot attempt, and while his assist rate is lower than a year ago it's not a dramatic difference.
Wade wasn't exactly chopped liver either, with 25 points, seven assists, no turnovers, and a dramatic block of a J.J. Redick breakaway layup.
"He looked pretty damned good to me," said Orlando's Vince Carter.
Yet watching him, it doesn't seem he has the same explosion he did a year go. There have been exceptions -- a nationally televised game against Cleveland that included a vicious dunk over Anderson Varejao stands out. Yet one wonders if the decline in Wade's shooting percentages are a symptom of the conditioning problem to which Riley alluded to.
D-Wade's Shooting By Distance
Distance 2008-09 Pct. 2009-10 Pct.
0-5 feet 65.1 / 59.2
6-10 feet 46.6 / 40.0
10-15 feet 45.6 / 41.3
16-20 feet 42.1 / 31.6
21+ feet 33.1 / 28.0
Through Wednesday's games. Source: Synergy Sports.
Note: 34 Wade shots missing for 2008-09; five missing for 2009-10
Just look at Wade's shot chart. He's getting to the same spots on the floor, but he hasn't been nearly as proficient from them. At every range, he's shooting dramatically worse than he did a year ago (see chart).
Of particular note is the glaring decline in accuracy from 16 to 20 feet; Wade takes nearly a quarter of his shots from that range, so the 105-point drop is enough to sabotage his field-goal percentage just by itself.
Of course, opposing coaches remain unconvinced. Van Gundy said Wade's numbers would be back where they always are by the end of the season, using the classic "regression to the mean" argument that stat heads love without saying those three specific words.
Additionally, Wade can point to a sore wrist that has plagued him recently as a plausible reason for his diminished shooting accuracy. Unfortunately, he aggravated the wrist making the block on Redick, so if that's the problem the Heat may have to wait a while longer for a resolution.
Waiting, ironically, may be the biggest problem. Wade had little to motivate him this offseason, knowing that the Heat were essentially playing for next year's free agent market. Without a Team USA gig to keep him sharp it's fair to wonder if he's using the first half of the season to get into playoff shape.
Barring a dramatic personnel move, the Heat will be waiting too -- waiting to see whether Wade's shooting numbers recover enough to make them a dangerous opponent come spring, or if his current struggles will render them no more than a .500 team that makes a quick exit come April.
What's certain, especially after Thursday's rout of the defending conference champion, is that Wade has a lot more help than a year ago. We just don't know yet if it's going to matter.
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