Predictions NBA 2009/2010

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Summer Forecast: '09-10 East standings

1. Cleveland Cavaliers : 61-21

Let's talk Shaq, the Big Caveat Emptor: He has won four titles, is on his fifth franchise and has been swept from the playoffs six times. Reborn in Phoenix, he led the Suns to exactly one playoff win in two seasons. So will he break up the Cavs with laughter or just break them up? Can't wait to find out. (Why only 61 wins? See note above.)

2. Boston Celtics : 57-25

Many think a healthy Kevin Garnett and a revitalized Rasheed Wallace will get the Celts back to the top. (See our East title picks on Thursday.) But KG's balky knee is unproven, and Sheed is a known coach killer who is coming off a lousy season and turns 35 this month. So some voters are still in wait-and-C mode.

3. Orlando Magic : 56-26

Orlando's magical run to the NBA Finals didn't make a believer out of everyone, and the sorta-swap of Hedo Turkoglu for Vince Carter got mixed reviews (here and here). But some like what they see, including a starting lineup that features four recent All-Stars, and expect big things again in O-Town.

4. Atlanta Hawks : 45-37

ESPN's panelists like the Hawks as the Beasts of the Rest in the East once again, expecting the additions of Jamal Crawford and Joe Smith to keep them in the No. 4 slot. If our Eastern Conference prognostications are accurate, the Hawks will again host the Miami Heat in Game 1 of Round 1 when the playoffs begin next April.


5. Miami Heat : 44-38

A year ago, our forecasters were all over the place in trying to guess where the 15-67 Heat would finish in '09. Now that they have seen a healthy Dwyane Wade take his team to a 43-39 finish and the No. 5 seed, our panelists expect more of the same as Miami bides its time until the summer of 2010.

6. Chicago Bulls : 43-39

Our voters have the Bulls winning as few as 30 games and as many as 55, and perhaps it comes down to what they think of reigning rookie of the year Derrick Rose, whose scintillating playoff performance was followed by a tumultuous summer. In any case, most of our panel is bullish on Chicago overall.

7. Philadelphia 76ers : 39-43

Our panel is hardly in love with Philly, but it still sees the 76ers squeaking into the playoffs (with an average prediction of 39.4 wins). File under "Best Guess," though, because no one knows exactly what the arrival of new coach Eddie Jordan, the return of post man Elton Brand and the departure of point guard Andre Miller really mean.

8. Washington Wizards : 39-43

To hopeful Wiz fans, the arrival of Flip Saunders, Randy Foye and Mike Miller along with an apparent return to health for Gilbert Arenas and Brendan Haywood will make all the difference. But while our panel sees the Wiz as probable to make the playoffs (with an average prediction of 39.1 wins), it still doesn't see them as true contenders.



- D'après ESPN et leur panel de votants (insiders, editors etc... Plus de 50 votants quand même) voici donc les 8 qualifiés pour l'Eastern Conference avec une petite synthèse !

- Voici ceux qui seront en vacances mi-Avril d'après ces mêmes votants :

9. Toronto Raptors : 39-43

If you have to be cruel to be kind, then our panel is killing Toronto with kindness. After Monday's prediction that Chris Bosh would depart in 2010, now our forecasters have the Raptors missing the playoffs by 0.1 wins (with an average prediction of 39.0 wins). We'll see if the addition of Hedo Turkoglu is the tonic in Toronto.

10. Detroit Pistons : 38-44

Detroit fans are already defining success downward, and our panel says they have the right idea. If our forecast plays out, the Pistons will miss the playoffs for the first time in nine seasons, and will have a lottery pick to show for their hotly debated trade of Chauncey Billups and acquisitions of Ben Gordon and Charlie Villanueva.

11. Charlotte Bobcats : 35-47

Michael Jordan's Bobcats are stuck in purgatory, according to our panel: too talented and well-coached to be terrible and get a high lottery pick, but not talented enough to make their first-ever playoff run. So what does all that mediocrity and a swap of Emeka Okafor for Tyson Chandler get you? Another 35-47 season.

12. Indiana Pacers : 33-49

For three straight seasons, the Pacers have been the East's best lottery team. Alas, our panel doesn't see their inglorious run of ninth-place finishes continuing, as Indiana looks like No. 12 material to ESPN's experts. The biggest issue seems to be a depleted talent base unreplenished since the Pacers' recent glory years.

13. New York Knicks : 32-50

It has been a strange offseason in New York, with doomed bids to sign 1995 co-rookies of the year Jason Kidd and Grant Hill, a field trip to witness Eddy Curry's waistline and endless negotiations with free agents David Lee, Nate Robinson and Ramon Sessions. The reason, of course, is the summer of 2010. In the meantime …

14. Milwaukee Bucks : 30-52

With questions about Michael Redd's knee, Andrew Bogut's back, Charlie Villanueva's replacement and the PG position, Milwaukee is one of the NBA's true mystery teams. Could coach Scott Skiles lead the Bucks to a surprise playoff run? Could they fall apart and lose 60 games? As the saying goes, that's why they play the games.

15. New Jersey Nets : 29-53

No franchise has more uncertainty about its future than the one that has traded away Jason Kidd, Richard Jefferson and Vince Carter in the past two years and made many false starts in its bid to get to Brooklyn. But the silver lining is the Nets have some good young talent and should have a high lottery pick and lots of 2010 cap space.



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