 Washington Wizards 2009/2010 |
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A healthy Agent Zero has D.C. thinking title, but the Wiz may be in for a reality check
Offseason Moves
One can conjure many potential responses to a 19-win season -- "Let's go all in for the championship!" isn't one of them. Yet that was the Wizards' approach to the struggles of 2008-09, as owner Abe Pollin signed off on going well into the luxury tax and the Wizards sought to supplement their roster with veteran help that could push them deep into the postseason.
Depending on one's point of view, this is either a heartening change from the usual salary-dumping and cost-cutting that most of the league's bottom half underwent this summer, or a delusional, misguided and expensive effort. Washington will pay nearly $10 million in luxury tax for a team that won 19 games a year ago. If the Wizards don't succeed early, it will be interesting to see if they keep the faith or start shedding salaries since they have until the trade deadline to scoot under the tax line.
Hired Flip Saunders.
Say what you want about the Wizards' other personnel moves, but there's no arguing with this one. Saunders was the best coach available, with the only critique being that he's never won a championship. Alas, few active coaches have, what with Phil Jackson and Gregg Popovich monopolizing 14 of the past 19 titles and retired coaches (Pat Riley, Rudy Tomjanovich) claiming three of the five others.
Saunders boasts a .597 career winning percentage and was fired from his last gig for the sin of losing to a better team in the conference finals. His impact is subtle, but he's one of the league's most skillful users of zone defenses, while offensively his squads have been notable for their low turnover rates.
Traded Darius Songaila, Oleksiy Pecherov, Etan Thomas, and the No. 5 pick for Mike Miller and Randy Foye.
This draft-day deal set the stage for everything else that took place this offseason, as the Wizards sent an early signal that they wouldn't be retrenching. The deal was cap-neutral but sent out the fifth overall pick in the draft -- one that would become Spanish phenom Ricky Rubio -- to bring back backcourt help in Miller and Foye.
Certainly Washington needed the assistance. Foye is capable of playing the point should Arenas' knee problems resurface, while Miller's long-range shooting and underrated passing ability should help provide space and shots for everyone else. Washington lost three frontcourt players in the trade, but with youngsters like Blatche and McGee pushing for more minutes and Haywood returning from injury, those three players were unlikely to play much anyway.
Signed Fabricio Oberto to a one-year, $2.1 million deal.
Washington needed a veteran big man to supplement the rotation, so it was a justifiable decision. However, they paid a bit much for Oberto's services considering his rapid decline the past two seasons and infrequent availability due to a heart problem (besides, didn't they already go through this with Thomas?). If Oberto can teach McGee and Blatche the dark arts of clutching, grabbing and flopping, he'll justify the expense, but on the court he's just six more fouls.
Biggest Strength: Creating Shots
Washington certainly doesn't lack for players who can create offense, so the Wizards will never have to fret about a declining shot clock. Even though he's a question mark coming back from the knee injury, Arenas has to head the list because of his ability to generate shots with his quickness and long-range shooting ability. He's arguably the best in the league in end-of-quarter situations, where he usually generates a good look at the last possible instant. If his quickness bounces back, he's one of the best one-on-one players in basketball.
Butler also is adept at generating clean looks from a standstill, using a crossover move to free himself for his deadly midrange jumpers. Jamison operates a bit differently, moving without the ball to free himself for quick daggers in the paint, but the result is the same -- he can produce a clean look with little help.
Those three are the core, but several others have proven capable of creating offense, as well. Young had some big scoring games off the bench, and while he needs to get better at noticing the other four guys sharing the court with him, he can rise over just about any defender for midrange jumpers. Blatche is another capable scorer, as he has a high skill level for his size and is comfortable attacking opposing big men from the perimeter. Finally, newcomers Foye and Miller can produce offense, as well.
Biggest Weakness: Defense
No surprise here -- it's only been the team's biggest weakness for half a decade now. The Wizard have lots of capable offensive players, as they did throughout the Michael Jordan area, but that netted them only 45, 42, 41 and 43 wins in the four seasons preceding last year's debacle. Even with the trio of Arenas, Butler and Jamison firing on all cylinders, Washington could outscore its opponent only about half the time because its defense was so soft.
Little has changed on that front. Arenas has the skills to be an outstanding defender but has never shown much interest in becoming one, while Butler's effort slackened noticeably last season after Washington fell out of the race. Jamison is a below-average defender, as well, particularly from the help side, and with those three all providing little effort, the burden falls on the Wizards' secondary players to defend well.
As a result, there's little reason for encouragement. Haywood's return will be important, as he's been one of the league's most underrated defenders the past several seasons, but the other frontcourt players were clueless on D a year ago. McGuire is the only perimeter player who has shown a zest for defense, but he may not play much given the additions of Miller and Foye.
Outlook
The additions of Arenas, Miller and Foye has to hearten Wizards fans -- last year they had the worst backcourt in the league, but the return of Agent Zero and the other new blood should turn this spot from a glaring weakness to a strength. Arenas reportedly looked very good in offseason workouts now that his injury has had enough time to heal, so it's reasonable to think he can score more than 20 points a game and stay on the floor for 70 games or so.
Saunders' arrival is another encouraging sign, as he's likely to spend more effort improving the defense than his predecessors did and may be able to coax better results. Don't expect miracles, but between Saunders' arrival and Haywood's return, the Wizards won't be 29th in defensive efficiency this time around.
That said, it's time to pull back for a reality check. This team won 19 games a year ago, and even with the additions it doesn't appear to be any kind of threat to the conference's elite. Washington won in the low 40s the other four years they had the Arenas-Butler-Jamison nucleus together, and this time around Arenas may not score at such a prolific rate.
Overall, there are reasons for optimism looking forward. The coaching situation appears strong, the Wizards have several promising young players and Arenas finally appears healthy again. That should be enough to get Washington back to the playoffs, but expecting anything beyond that seems unreasonable. Whether a first-round exit is worth a $10 million luxury-tax bill is up to Abe Pollin, but I'm guessing he had higher hopes when he signed off on it.
Prediction: 41-41, 3rd in Southeast Division, 6th in Eastern Conference
0 Gilbert Arenas
7 Andray Blatche
3 Caron Butler
8 Javaris Crittenton
Paul Davis
15 Randy Foye
Vincent Grier
33 Brendan Haywood
13 Mike James
4 Antawn Jamison
34 JaVale McGee
5 Dominic McGuire
6 Mike Miller
21 Fabricio Oberto
2 DeShawn Stevenson
1 Nick Young
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