 Charlotte Bobcats 2009/2010 |
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Charlotte's thinking playoffs. But without much 'O', the 'Cats may be left out in the cold.
Are Larry Brown and the Bobcats thisclose to making the playoffs for the first time in their history ?
Offseason Moves
Far and away the biggest "move" of the offseason was the announcement that owner Robert Johnson would try to sell the team. His stewardship of the Bobcats has been something less than ideal, with the Bobcats mostly running on the cheap and making several terrible business decisions along the way.
Johnson's departure also might mean the departure of Golfer-in-Chief Michael Jordan. Johnson installed Jordan as the team president more for his name value than for his executive acumen, and since taking the gig, Jordan has spent more time with his six-iron than he has in Charlotte. That leadership void has allowed Larry Brown to take on an outsized role in making personnel moves, which is always a dangerous proposition given how quickly he falls in and out of love with players.
The previous year's draft provides a great example -- Brown saw Ajinca work out, absolutely had to have him, and traded a future first-rounder, which could prove a high lottery pick, to nab Ajinca with the 20th pick. That decision came on the heels of Charlotte's extremely questionable decision earlier in the same draft to pass on Brook Lopez so they could take point guard D.J. Augustin. While Augustin had a decent rookie year, Lopez was arguably the most effective rookie in the league.
Charlotte's overall draft history, by the way, has been shoddy ever since the team forced out Bernie Bickerstaff. Selecting Morrison with the third overall pick in 2006 was the worst mistake, but far from the only one. One hopes that the new owner isn't dazzled by Jordan's star and hires a full-time executive more willing to put in a full day's work.
In the meantime, Charlotte worked to clean up its balance sheet in anticipation of a sale, leading to a fairly quiet summer. Heading into training camp there was only one piece of unfinished business, as the Bobcats had yet to agree to a deal with restricted free agent Raymond Felton. Chances are he'll end up signing the one-year qualifying offer for $5.5 million and try to get a better contract next year.
Drafted Henderson and Derrick Brown.
This one looks like a Larry Brown call, as Henderson is another good wing defender who should supplant Bell at some point as the team's main stopper. The problem is that Henderson's offensive game is more limited, so the offense-starved Bobcats can expect only modest production at that end.
Derrick Brown was an early second-round pick who may play right away because the Bobcats' rotation is so thin at the forward spots. He's a good athlete with 3-point range who can play both forward spots, but he was unusually unproductive as a collegian.
Traded Emeka Okafor to New Orleans for Tyson Chandler.
This one was most likely made at the owner's behest. Okafor had five years and $63 million left on his deal, which resulted from a mistaken decision a year earlier to give him a six-year deal at an inflated price. Not surprisingly, Johnson wanted the deal off his books in order to expedite the sale of the team.
Chandler makes similar money for a shorter time period -- two years, $27 million -- so the financial motivation is clear. But basketball-wise, this deal makes little sense. Charlotte already ranked among the league's worst offensive teams, and Chandler is visibly inferior to Okafor offensively -- he averages about five points fewer per 40 minutes.
Re-signed Raymond Felton for one year, $5.5 million.
Felton agreed to return for his qualifying offer after he couldn't find better money as a restricted free agent. That's about his fair market value since he's not talented enough to start for a good team. He's a good insurance policy against a regression by second-year pro D.J. Augustin, but probably won't be able to hold him off for the starting job.
Signed Ronald Murray for one year, $1.9 million.
Murray was one of the most effective sixth men in the league last year, so getting him this cheaply was a huge coup for the Bobcats. It's especially important since they desperately needed a scorer who can create shots; that's Murray's specialty. He'll come off the bench and likely have free reign to fire away given the lack of offensive skill on the rest of Charlotte's second unit.
Biggest Strength: Defense
The one thing you can say about Larry Brown's teams is that they play defense, and this squad should be no exception. From spots 2 through 5, every player in the rotation is a quality defender, and the Bobcats lose nothing on the Okafor-Chandler swap on this end, provided Chandler can stay healthy.
Behind Chandler, Diop is among the league's best defensive centers, and we can go two-deep through the roll call at the other spots, too. Bell is getting up in years but is still among the best wing stoppers, while rookie Henderson figures to be his protégé at that spot. Gerald Wallace is a disruptive defender with his nose for steals and shot-blocking ability, and backup Radmanovic is vastly underrated at that end at 6-foot-10 with quick feet. And while Diaw is an undersized power forward, he makes up for it with outstanding quickness and underrated strength.
Take those individual talents and meld them into Brown's scheme, and you have a recipe for an elite defensive team.
Biggest Weakness: Offense
Here are the 40-minute scoring averages for Charlotte's projected starting five: Wallace 17.7, Augustin 17.8, Bell 13.8, Diaw 15.6, Chandler 11.0. Add them up and that's 75.9 points in 40 minutes, or about 91.0 per 48 minutes.
Now compare that result with this fact: No team in the NBA scored fewer than 93 points a game last season.
The numbers above are for Charlotte's starters, but the bench players aren't any better. Plug in some minutes for Diop (6.6), Radmanovic (14.9), Felton (15.1), Murray (19.7) and the two rookies, and the outlook gets even worse.
Granted, some of the shots Okafor took will be redistributed to others, but the paucity of scoring weapons in Charlotte is a glaring weakness that is likely to sidetrack its season. The Bobcats' limited ability to create good looks in the half court and Brown's unwillingness to run will combine to make for one of the league's worst offensive clubs, and there doesn't seem to be much help on the horizon.
Outlook
Charlotte has only two positive indicators in its favor. First, the Cats finished strongly last year, with their remodeled roster playing essentially .500 ball after the slow start. Second, Charlotte granted an inordinate number of minutes last year to players who contributed sub-replacement-level production, a feat that would be almost impossible to repeat. Even if they replace those minutes with players who are merely "poor" instead of "terrible," they'll come out ahead on the bargain.
Another bright spot is the schedule -- the wildly unbalanced home-road split of the past two years has been replaced with something far more even, which should make it easier for the Bobcats to dig out of the early hole that Brown's teams habitually dig for themselves.
Despite those positives, it's tough to be optimistic about the team's prospects for this season. The Chandler trade was a downgrade, and it was the worst kind for them because it exchanged a halfway decent scorer for a subpar one. The Bobcats were already desperate for offense, so this move just puts more pressure on the likes of Diaw and Wallace to create opportunities.
Wallace is one of the league's most underrated players, an electrifying forward who might be an All-Star on a more prominent team, but he's more of an all-around force than a go-to scorer. Diaw has similar limitations, and with two infrequent scorers around them in Chandler and Bell, turnovers are the probable result, just like a year ago. Murray will help with his firepower off the bench, but he may not play heavy minutes given the crowded backcourt; at any rate, expecting a repeat of last season seems unrealistic.
In fact, Charlotte may very well finish dead last in offensive efficiency this season. Only two players -- Wallace and Augustin -- project to post PERs above the league average. And if injuries hit, forget it -- the tight financial fists and poor drafts have left the Bobcats with so little depth that their second-round draft pick will almost certainly be a rotation player.
As a result, the Bobcats will have to be extraordinary on defense just to smell .500. I suspect they'll be good at that end, because Brown's teams always are, but I doubt they'll be good enough to offset the offense.
Prediction: 29-53, 5th in Southeast Division, 12th in Eastern Conference.
21 Alexis Ajinca
5 Antonio Anderson
14 D.J. Augustin
19 Raja Bell
4 Derrick Brown
6 Tyson Chandler
32 Boris Diaw
7 DeSagana Diop
20 Raymond Felton
23 Stephen Graham
15 Gerald Henderson
2 Dontell Jefferson
13 Nazr Mohammed
22 Ronald Murray
10 Vladimir Radmanovic
3 Gerald Wallace
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