 Standings 2009/2010 |
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posté par Anonyme : | Projected record from today to end of season*
John Hollinger ESPN Insider
East Wins Losses :
- Cleveland 31 11
- Boston 30 15
- Atlanta 28 16
- Orlando 27 16
- Charlotte 25 21
- Miami 25 21
- Toronto 23 20
- New York 22 22
- Chicago 21 25
- Philadelphia 20 24
- Milwaukee 20 26
- Washington 17 28
- Indiana 14 30
- Detroit 14 31
- New Jersey 9 35
West Wins Losses
- San Antonio 28 17
- Utah 27 17
- Phoenix 26 17
- L.A. Lakers 25 18
- Dallas 25 19
- Oklahoma City 25 19
- Denver 24 19
- Portland 23 19
- Houston 23 20
- Memphis 24 21
- New Orleans 21 24
- L.A. Clippers 20 25
- Golden State 19 26
- Sacramento 17 28
- Minnesota 10 21
* Based on Thursday's Playoff Odds
It usually evens out in the end.
That's the message that needs to be heard when it comes to a lot of unbalanced trends we've seen at midseason. Whether it's home-road disparities or schedule strength or unusually good or bad records in close games, one has to remember that these things tend to even themselves out over the course of an 82-game season. And with e-mails pouring in about how the Playoff Odds project the final record and odds for certain teams, it's important to bring these points up again.
For instance, let's look at the race to be the top seed overall in the NBA. The Lakers, at 30-9, are a half-game ahead of Cleveland and 1.5 games up on Boston. You might think, then, that the odds favor L.A. to maintain the top spot all season.
But look at the home-road disparities of the three teams and you'll see a very different story. L.A. has played only 15 road games, while Boston has played 21 and Cleveland 23. Project out each team's final record based on nothing more than their current home and road marks and how many home and road game they have left, and the final tally reads: Cleveland, 62 wins; L.A., 60 wins; Boston, 59 wins.
The Lakers, in other words, have a lot of work to do just to outpace Boston, let alone keep stride with the Cavs, because they'll be running uphill the rest of the way. Thursday's Playoff Odds reflect that reality, with the Cavs expected to comfortably outpace L.A.
Home-road disparities are a big deal in the Western Conference playoff race, too. Five teams stand within two games of one another in the race for the conference's second seed, with another quintet of clubs lingering two games behind the first group. But the 10 teams have had wildly different schedules thus far. At one extreme is San Antonio, which has played 23 home games and just 14 on the road; at the other is Houston, which sits just seventh at the moment but has played 16 times at home and 23 on the road.
As in the case above, this has a huge impact on what the final standings may look like. But another "evening-out" factor matters much more here. The Spurs have played a ton of home games and the Rockets very few, but the two teams' scoring margins are of far greater interest. Houston is five games over .500 despite having outscored opponents by just 0.5 points per game, while the Spurs are only three games up on the Rockets in the standings even with the best scoring margin in the West -- even better than L.A.'s. In other words, the Spurs have played better than their record and that bodes well for the future
Thus, despite the fact Houston has already played the toughest part of its schedule, the Rockets project to finish a game out of the playoffs at 45-37, while the Spurs project to land second at 52-30.
In addition, two other Southwest Division teams warrant mentioning. To say the Mavericks have been fortunate in close games this season is a wild understatement; they're 10-4 in games decided by five points or less, which is how they own the West's second-best record despite the seventh-best scoring margin. The Playoff Odds see the trend evening out over the second half of the season and landing Dallas in a tie for third, just one game out of fifth.
A lot of observers think winning these games is a sign of clutch ability or similar superpowers, but it's really mostly luck, which is why no team can sustain a strong record in this department season after season. (In fact, teams that are very good in close games in one season can and often will be very bad the next, with no changes in personnel.) Dallas got a lot of attention for this recently because the Mavs were 18-5 in such games a season ago and started off 8-1 this season, but their luck has turned of late in this department, including last night's five-point loss to the Lakers; Dallas is 2-3 in its last five games of this ilk.
New Orleans is another team that takes a step back when we start looking at scoring margin. The Hornets are three games over .500 but have been outscored by 1.5 points per game, largely because they won six straight by five or less to start the new year. With a 10-3 mark overall in such games, they're another club that's looking at a great evening-out in the days ahead.
We should talk about these trends in the East as well, because they're important in the race for the conference's final few playoff spots. Currently, Chicago holds the No. 8 spot in the East and is tied with Toronto in the loss column for No 7; based on this information, you might conclude the Bulls are in great shape for a playoff run.
Not so fast. Chicago has played only 16 road games and has one of the league's worst road records at 3-13; only Indiana, New Jersey and Minnesota are worse. Not only do the Bulls still have 25 road games to go, they're the only team facing two negative evening-out trends at once. Chicago's average scoring margin of minus-3.7 per game is nowhere close to what we'd expect for a 16-20 team; the Bulls should be more like 12-24.
As a result, the Playoff Odds favor No. 9 New York to make up a game on the Bulls and bypass them for the final playoff spot, and projects Chicago's current neighbors in the standings, Toronto and Charlotte, to outdistance the Bulls by five game in the final table.
To sum up today's big theme, I'll leave you with the final big chart: Every team's projected record from now to the end of the season, based on Thursday's Playoff Odds. It's instructive to turn the tables a bit and look at things from this perspective. It shows how schedule and scoring margin factors are likely to influence teams the rest of the way. |
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