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posté par Anonyme : | Playoff predictions: Round by round
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West First Round
(1) L.A. Lakers vs. (8) Oklahoma City
Season series: 3-1 Lakers.
Odds say: Lakers 56.4%; Thunder 43.6%
Everyone seems to think L.A. will just turn it on now that the playoffs have started. Count me among the skeptics.
In fact, I think it's going to take all the Lakers can muster to get out of the first round. Andrew Bynum's return will help, but the Lakers have other issues to deal with, from Kobe Bryant's late-season struggles to Jordan Farmar's unheralded injury that could leave L.A. more dependent than ever on the flailing Derek Fisher.
The saving grace for L.A. is that the Thunder aren't clicking right now, either. Kevin Durant is a monster, but Russell Westbrook has been in a funk since mid-March and the Thunder were just 9-8 over their final 17 games. I'm not sure the Lakers will win a game in Oklahoma City, but they'll do just enough to get out of this alive.
Pick: Lakers in seven
(2) Dallas vs. (7) San Antonio
Season series: 3-1 Mavs.
Odds say: Spurs 74.5%; Mavs 24.5%
This is one of two matchups that really vexed me, because the statistical indicators basically collide with themselves.
Let's start at the top. In a previous piece on the Mavs that got Dallas fans stirred up, I mentioned I thought my Power Rankings had overrated San Antonio. Oops. As it turns out, they were remarkably prescient: San Antonio went on to crush one contender after another the rest of the way. (Lesson: Never try to make playoff predictions in early March. Not that making them in mid-April will turn out much better.)
Second, there's that whole 41-0 thing. Dallas won the season series with San Antonio 3-1, so the Spurs would be a glaring exception to the rule if I were to pick them.
I've been cynical about Dallas' contender status ("Really?" Mavs nation says, "You don't say?"), but the Mavs played much better over the final 10 days of the season and ended up with a respectable point differential over the final quarter of the season. The Mavs also are 23-7 since trading for Caron Butler and Brendan Haywood, which is superior to San Antonio's 20-11 mark in that time.
The difference is that San Antonio played one of the league's most difficult schedules over the final quarter of the season, while Dallas' schedule looked like it was drawn up by TCU's football program. (You like that? Two Dallas sports insults in one sentence! P.S.: Roger Staubach was a ninny.)
In all seriousness, Dallas played the league's second-easiest schedule over the final quarter. Of the Mavs' final 21 games, 12 were against lottery teams, two others were against the lottery-esque Bulls and one was against San Antonio's scrubs -- plus, 12 of the 21 games were at home. So only six of 21 were against playoff-caliber competition, and they lost four of those games (and two others).
Meanwhile, San Antonio faced a murderer's row over the final month. Eleven of the Spurs' final 17 opponents won 50 games, and two others (Memphis and Houston) were respectable, plus 10 of the 17 were on the road. In that time, the Spurs beat Cleveland, L.A., Orlando, Denver, Boston and Oklahoma City, and posted a better scoring margin against the brutal schedule than Dallas did against its parade of softies.
What I'm saying is that the records deceive -- by most advanced measures, San Antonio appears to be the better team. As for that little 41-0 thing? It comes into play only because the Spurs tanked the season finale in Dallas. Had they won, the season series would be 2-2 and I'd have no reason whatsoever to pick Dallas.
As noted, the last team to defy the 41-0 rule was the Spurs, who did it the last time they went into a series without home-court advantage in the first round. It looks like they'll do it again.
Pick: Spurs in six
(3) Phoenix vs. (6) Portland
Season series: 2-1 Blazers.
Odds say: Suns 64.9%; Blazers 35.1%
The odds and head-to-head matchups say the Blazers have a chance; common sense says otherwise.
Forget the fact Phoenix is the hottest team in the West at the moment and that the Blazers are ill-suited to take advantage of the Suns' biggest weakness (a lack of quality size), because there's also the little matter of Portland's best player being unable to perform.
Brandon Roy wasn't as good this season as he was in 2008-09, but there's still a serious diminution in production when he's off the court. Portland was 8-9 in games he missed in the regular season and had a negative scoring margin in those 17 games. While the rest of the Blazers were good enough at times to hammer Orlando by 15 and even beat the Suns in Phoenix without him, they also were bad enough to lose to Washington and New Orleans.
We'll talk more about the Suns down below, but suffice it to say, I'll be surprised if they're tested in Round 1, buying them more time to get Robin Lopez back into playing shape.
Pick: Suns in five
(4) Denver vs. (5) Utah
Season series: 3-1 Nuggets.
Odds say: Jazz 61.2%; Nuggets 38.8%
If you're wondering about Carlos Boozer, you're worrying about the wrong guy. Paul Millsap can replicate much of what Boozer provides -- it's Andrei Kirilenko's absence that sent Utah sideways over the final three weeks.
The Jazz had the best Power Ranking of any team in the West prior to his calf strain and had won 20 of 24 games in which Kirilenko had played at least 25 minutes. But with him gone, the Jazz went only 11-7 down the stretch and missed out on a division title that the Nuggets had basically laid at Utah's feet.
Obviously, Boozer's availability is a factor, too, especially since Mehmet Okur's Achilles is still bothering him. Nonetheless, I suspect Kirilenko's health will be the deciding factor for Utah's playoff hopes.
Denver, in the meantime, went only 13-8 after losing Kenyon Martin to a knee injury. While Martin played in the final three games, he wasn't that Kenyon Martin and in fact pulled himself out of Sunday's rout at Phoenix at the half because his knee was still bothering him.
The Nuggets have home court, which is important but less crucial than history might indicate. Because of the altitude and the travel, Denver and Utah historically have massive splits between home and road records; this season, the Nuggets had a 15-game differential and the Jazz an 11-game split. But with no back-to-backs, just one-hour flights and only a 1,000-foot elevation difference, it shouldn't be as large a factor here.
The Jazz have a superior scoring margin and the same win-loss record, and Kirilenko is expected back for Game 1, all of which would make me hugely confident in Utah were it not for that 41-0 staring me in the face. Denver had a healthy Martin for all four meetings, though, and I'm suspecting it won't for this faceoff. As a result, I'll spit into the wind of history a second time here.
Pick: Utah in six
East First Round
(1) Cleveland vs. (8) Chicago
Season series: 2-2 split.
Odds say: Cavs 97.0%; Bulls 3.0%
Cleveland needs a tuneup to work Shaquille O'Neal back into the mix, and the Cavs will get one with the Bulls. While Chicago rallied to make the playoffs and has proved to be a feisty opponent in the teams' regular-season meetings, I have trouble seeing the Bulls providing much of an obstacle in the postseason. We have more important stuff to talk about, so let's not dwell on this one.
Pick: Cavs in four
(2) Orlando vs. (7) Charlotte
Season series: 3-1 Orlando.
Odds say: Magic 91.9%; Bobcats 8.1%
Orlando was the best team in the league in the second half of the season, so it's a little odd that nobody seems to want to talk about it. Over the final quarter of the season, its average scoring margin was a jaw-dropping plus-12.8, and for the whole season, it led the NBA at plus-7.4. Make no mistake: This is a formidable, championship-caliber outfit.
For Charlotte, here's Larry Brown in a nutshell: He took the team to its first playoff appearance, and he might be already lining up his next gig. The Bobcats likely will take one game from Orlando, given Charlotte's phenomenally large home-road splits this season (31 home wins against just 13 on the road, an 18-game differential that was the league's largest this season). However, things will take a turn for the worse for Charlotte when Brown leaves the bench in the second quarter of Game 4 to take the Philadelphia job.
Pick: Magic in five
(3) Atlanta vs. (6) Milwaukee
Season series: 2-1 Atlanta.
Odds say: Hawks 74.8%; Bucks 25.2%
The Bucks have gone 4-2 since losing Andrew Bogut two weeks ago, so they aren't exactly chopped liver without him. Nonetheless, their hopes of pulling a first-round upset probably went out the window when Bogut hit the floor.
Atlanta beat the Bucks in Milwaukee this past weekend in a game that both sides were trying to win, providing a grim omen for the Bucks' playoff hopes. A raucous home crowd (partially of Bogut's creation) should be able to snag a win for them, but I can't see them doing much more against a deep, balanced Hawks squad, especially with the 41-0 rule staring them in the face.
Pick: Hawks in five
(4) Boston vs. (5) Miami
Season series: 3-0 Boston.
Odds say: Celtics 54.2%; Heat 45.8%
We think of the Celtics as contenders and the Heat as pretenders, but they finished only three games apart in the standings. Boston started 23-5 and finished 27-27; Miami was 24-27 at one point but finished 23-8 in its final 31 games. So we have two sides going in opposite directions, and normally that and Dwyane Wade would be enough to get me to side with the Heat.
But this is a bad matchup for Miami. Boston beat the Heat all three times they played, and two of those meetings were in Miami; furthermore, the Celtics were missing Paul Pierce for one of those games and Kevin Garnett for another. The Celtics' defensive approach against the Heat has been interesting, and effective: Wade has run wild on them, but the Heat have yet to produce another 20-point scorer in a game against Boston.
Sum it all up, and I think the Celtics can survive this one ... barely. Much like a year ago in the Chicago-Boston series, it will go down to the wire and probably provide our best first-round series. The 41-0 rule says it would be foolish to pick against the Celtics here, so in the absence of compelling counterarguments, I'll take them by a whisker.
Pick: Celtics in seven |
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